AAP FACTCHECK – A report shows 15,114 more COVID-vaccinated Australians died than the baseline average by November 2023, a social media post claims.
This is misleading. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) told AAP FactCheck there is no data on excess deaths by vaccination status. The overall number of excess deaths in Australia in 2023 was 8744.
A Facebook post references an Australian Senate inquiry into excess mortality which it says was triggered by “increases in the number of vaccinated Australians dying”.
The post features a link to an article published by an online NZ publication reporting that the Senate probe began after United Australia Party senator Ralph Babet raised “worrying numbers” for excess deaths.
The headline reads: “With increases in the number of vaccinated Australians dying, the Senate has finally launched an inquiry”.
“The inquiry began after Senator Babet once again pointed the senate towards worrying numbers of ‘excess deaths’ reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Even worse are figures from the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) which seems to have provisional mortality figures confirming that by November 2023 there had been 15,114 more deaths of Covid-vaccinated people than the baseline average,” the linked article says.
The Senate voted on March 26 to hold the inquiry into excess mortality following a fifth motion by Senator Babet with a public hearing held on June 13.
The Senate Community Affairs Committee is due to report its findings by August 31.
However, the TGA has not published data confirming “15,114 more deaths of Covid-vaccinated people than the baseline average”.
The cited figure is actually the number of all-cause excess deaths in the first 11 months of 2023 published in the ABS Provisional Mortality Statistics on February 27, 2024.
The ABS estimated that 166,957 deaths occurred between January and November 30, 2023. That’s potentially 15,114 deaths or 10 per cent higher than the baseline average, which includes the years 2017-19 and 2021.
Overall excess deaths in Australia were 4.7 per cent lower in the first 11 months of 2023 than in the previous corresponding period.
The ABS told AAP FactCheck that claiming that figure is the confirmed number of excess deaths among vaccinated Australians is “incorrect”.
“The ABS does not publish any mortality data by vaccination status as it is not collected as part of a death registration,” a spokesman told AAP FactCheck.
The ABS also stressed that provisional mortality statistics “should not be used for excess mortality estimates” either, and the figures have since been revised.
A more recent ABS report – Measuring Australia’s excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic until December 2023 – was published in June 2024.
Again, the newer ABS report does not include any breakdown of excess deaths by vaccination status; however, it confirms that excess deaths have been falling since a peak in 2022.
The statistics show 8744 all-cause excess deaths occurred in 2023, a 56.3 per cent drop from the 20,022 recorded in 2022.
The ABS report says all-cause excess deaths were 5.1 per cent higher than expected in 2023, but closer to expectations than the previous year when they were 11.7 per cent higher than forecast.
The Verdict
Misleading – The claim is accurate in parts but information has also been presented incorrectly, out of context or omitted.
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