Australia’s relationship with the United States is expected to remain strong after the presidential election, but experts weigh what the outcome could mean for the broader region.
The status quo would remain for the alliance between the two countries regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins, former Australian ambassador to the US Arthur Sinodinos said.
However, a new president could affect how other nations interact with Australia due to foreign policies of the incoming administration.
“The question is whether the relationship between the US and partners in Europe and the Indo-Pacific are impacted,” he told AAP.
“The question is on how other relationships between America and other allies play out.”
Both presidential candidates spent the final full day of campaigning rallying supporters in key battleground states, with polls showing the contest on a knife’s edge.
While there had been concern about the fate of the AUKUS submarine deal after President Joe Biden leaves office, Mr Sinodinos said the multibillion-dollar partnership would remain intact.
“There are question marks going forward, if there was a Trump presidency he might want more assurances with the industrial bases … but that’s speculation,” he said.
“The bedrock is that AUKUS is supported by both sides of politics.”
Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the federal government would work closely with either administration.
“We will work with whoever voters choose for president and also the Congress of the day in Australia’s interest to strengthen the alliance,” she told reporters in Canberra.
“Historically, we’ve had an alliance for many, many years and this relationship is bigger than the events of the day.”
After rioters stormed the US Capitol trying to overturn Mr Trump’s loss in the 2020 election, opposition foreign spokesman Simon Birmingham said he hoped there would not be unrest following the 2024 poll.
“We hope to see an election outcome that is respected by all sides, and that does see a peaceful transition of power from President Biden to either a new President Harris or a returned President Trump,” he told Sky News.
“Clearly, there are very strong and passionately held views on both sides. But the US has seen enormous tests and strain before.”
Mr Sinodinos said there was uncertainty in Washington, with security preparations in the event of unrest following the election outcome.
“The best advice is to hope for the best and prepare for the worst, and that’s what’s happening in DC,” he said.
“We didn’t think that January 6 would happen, but it did.”
Ms Harris is vying to be the first woman president, while if Mr Trump wins he will be the first in more than 130 years to serve non-consecutive terms in the White House.
it would be “extremely discombobulating for us allies around the world” if Mr Trump regains the presidency, Lowy Institute director Michael Fullilove said.
“Mr Trump is profoundly sceptical of alliances, he has a weird affinity for strongmen,” he told AAP.
“It’s all personal and it’s all transactional so that affects the reliability the rest of the world associates with the US.”
Mr Sinodinos said there was a precedent for what a second Trump term would look like.
“You can look at his first term for lessons on how he would conduct himself, but the question is whether other people are trying to influence him or whether it’s his own instinct and to what extent he’ll take a transaction approach,” he said.
