The coalition will begin its push to regain critical ground ahead of a federal election when Opposition Leader Peter Dutton delivers a campaign-style rally in a marginal seat.
Mr Dutton’s speech in the Melbourne seat of Chisholm on Sunday continues an unusual start to the political year after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese launched an early campaign blitz last week.
The looming federal election must be held by May 17.
Griffith University Associate Professor Paul Williams said the timing of Labor’s aggressive early move was a response driven by “fear”.
“Labor is fearful that the damage is going to be substantial, so they’ve come out hoping to catch the LNP napping,” the political analyst said.
“Campaigning in January, full stop, is usually considered a moot point because people aren’t paying attention … most people take the whole of January off.”
Chisholm, held by Dr Carina Garland after Labor won the seat from Liberal Gladys Liu in 2022, has emerged as a critical battleground in suburban Melbourne.
Prof Williams said Mr Dutton’s focus on the area was indicative of the coalition’s shift away from traditional strongholds.
“Queensland is not the key to the Lodge for Dutton or Albo,” he said.
“The keys to the Lodge lie in three places – Perth, Sydney, and Melbourne.
“There’s no more low-hanging fruit in Queensland … Melbourne is ripe for some coalition gains.”
Mr Dutton’s decision to target Chisholm underscored the challenge he faced in finding the 21 seats needed to secure a majority, Prof Williams said.
“Dutton could win 15. Two weeks ago, I would have said 10, but that Morgan poll now has a five per cent swing, so that’s 15 seats,” he said.
“But 15 is still short of 21.”
The two leaders are employing starkly different strategies.
The Albanese government has adopted a “big target” approach, focusing on achievements such as establishing a National Integrity Commission, wage increases for low-income workers and housing reforms.
“Governments by definition have to be big-target because they have to defend their records,” Prof Williams said.
He said Mr Dutton appeared to be adopting a “small target” approach.
“It looks as though Dutton is taking a leaf out of the (Premier David) Crisafulli playbook in Queensland,” he said.
“They had really only two gripes: law and order and cost of living.
“We’ve really only seen two threads from the Dutton leadership – one of course is nuclear power … and the other is this general anti-wokeness.
“Dutton keeps fighting the cultural wars.”
However, cost-of-living issues are expected to dominate the federal campaign.
“It will be what we call a material election, meaning it’s going to be kitchen table economics,” Prof Williams said.
“People aren’t going to be interested in climate change targets … it’s really going to be cost of living, cost of living, cost of living.”
