Australians are being warned not to expect interest-rate relief anytime before the end of the year, with experts warning a rate cut is not on the minds of Reserve Bank board.
The nation’s central bank will meet on Tuesday to decide the cash rate, with the big four retail banks forecasting it will remain unchanged at 4.35 per cent.
After the US Federal Reserve slashed its key interest rate half a percentage point, the RBA has increasingly come under pressure to bring forward its plans for relief.
But ANZ and Westpac expect the RBA to deliver its first cut in February, while NAB believes it will hold off until May.
ANZ economists Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes believe the board will only have two options in mind on Tuesday: hold or hike.
“We don’t think the Fed’s decision to ease by 50bp will directly influence the RBA’s decision,” they said.
“The RBA is at a different point in the cycle to the Fed. While the RBA’s focus remains on inflation, the Fed is more concerned with the labour market.”
Independent economist Saul Eslake also picked an initial rate cut in February 2025, unless the data showed something unexpected.
“I really do struggle to see why they would do it any earlier unless the underlying inflation rate falls much more quickly than they expected it to,” he told AAP.
“Even though the headline inflation rate is going to fall … largely as a result of electricity bill rebates provided by the federal and some state governments, the underlying inflation rate is still likely to be close to 3.5 which is far above the Reserve Bank’s target to begin cutting rates.”
There is some hope for a pre-Christmas rate cut though, with CBA’s Gareth Aird an outlier in predicting the RBA will make its first move downward in December.
“We expect the Stage 3 tax cuts to have only a minimal positive impact on household consumption in Q3 2024,” he said.
“This in turn should leave the RBA more assured that inflation will return sustainably to the target band, thereby opening the door for a December rate cut.”
Australian Bureau of Statistics data released earlier in September showed the unemployment rate steady at 4.2 per cent in August.
The monthly consumer price index will be published on Wednesday.
Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said he believed the likelihood of a cut in November had substantially increased.
“It will be an early Christmas present for households in Australia, if it does happen,” he said.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has previously criticised the central bank as having smashed the economy, as the government holds out hope for rate relief before an election is held in 2025.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reaffirmed the RBA’s independence, as the Greens urged the government to intervene and cut rates.
Mr Albanese said Labor remained committed to planned changes recommended in a review of the central bank, which included removing the treasurer’s power to overrule the Reserve Bank’s decision.
“They’re important reforms to strengthen the independence of the RBA and to ensure it’s essentially set up for the job it needs to do in the future,” the prime minister told reporters in Canberra on Monday.
Mr Albanese said the government was doing its part to lower inflation, which was keeping rates higher.
