As US mortgage holders celebrate a bumper 50 basis point interest rate cut, Australia’s central bank is still weighing a rate hike as it struggles to control stubborn inflation.
That should give it pause to reconsider its softly, softly approach, says economist Peter Tulip.
Dr Tulip, who has worked for the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia, said hindsight showed the RBA would have been better to follow the Fed’s aggressive moves during the tightening cycle.
“The RBA should be rethinking its strategy,” he told AAP.
“It had a policy that differed from other central banks of raising the cash rate relatively gradually.
“Other central banks were more aggressive than Australia and following from that, inflation is falling in other countries whereas it’s remaining stubbornly high in Australia.”
Markets have grown increasingly pessimistic the RBA will reduce the cash rate from its current 4.35 per cent before the end of 2024.
Governor Michele Bullock, who on Wednesday brought up a year at the helm, has repeatedly warned the fight against inflation is not over but refrained from raising the rate further since its last hike in November 2023.
She was thrust into the role following a landmark review intended to strengthen and modernise the institution.
As political horse-trading over this continues, Dr Tulip argues the RBA would have been better equipped to deal with inflation if a core recommendation of the review to replace the board with monetary policy experts was enacted, he said.
“It’s in the nature of having non-experts that you will move more gradually. If you don’t know what you’re doing, you’ll wait until the evidence is clearer,” he said.
“Part of the gradualism of the RBA reflects its lack of expertise and associated with that a lack of confidence and clarity in its thought.”
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been trying in vain to win coalition support for its reforms of the central bank.
Opposition counterpart Angus Taylor has demanded existing RBA board members carry over into the new monetary policy-setting board, which goes counter to the recommendation of getting in new, expert voices.
Meanwhile, the Greens have been demanding Labor maintain powers to override the RBA’s monetary policy decisions – adding the threat of political interference to the board’s thinking.
Judo Bank chief economic adviser Warren Hogan says political pressure on the RBA is making the job harder and resulting in worse economic outcomes for the Australian people.
Monthly inflation data due out on Wednesday, the day after the RBA rate decision, will show inflation slowing.
But government electricity subsidies will distort the reading by giving a one-off paper hit to the consumer price index, which won’t help get inflation under control in the long term.
“Political analysts will tell us that means the RBA should cut rates,” Mr Hogan told Sky News.
“That’s just not relevant for what the economic situation is. So it is a very complex situation and, unfortunately, there is a lot of moving parts and a lot of politicisation.
“Unfortunately, the RBA can’t just focus on what’s in the best interest of the economy in the long run.”
