Labor’s university figures don’t check out

Federal Labor politicians have claimed that only 13 per cent of people in regional areas aged in their late 20s and early 30s have a university degree.

Three Labor figures have repeatedly used the percentage to highlight the education gap between rural and urban areas and justify investment in new regional university hubs. 

But the 13 per cent figure is incorrect. About 27 per cent of people in regional areas aged in their late 20s and early 30s have a degree, according to an AAP FactCheck analysis of the most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data.

However, the proportion of regional degree holders is still well below urban areas where almost 50 per cent have degrees, according to the same ABS dataset.

AAP FactCheck has heard three Labor figures make the 13 per cent claim: Education Minister Jason Clare, Assistant Education Minister Anthony Chisholm and backbencher Graham Perrett.

Mr Clare made the claim in parliament on August 3 while speaking about a package of higher education legislation aimed at boosting student enrolments from socio-economic groups that are underrepresented in universities.

The government has also committed to increasing the number of regional university study hubs via separate legislation.

“Today almost one in two Australians in their late 20s and early 30s has a university degree, but not everywhere,” the minister told parliament.

“In the outer suburbs of our major cities, it’s only 23 per cent of young adults who have a university degree. In the regions, it’s 13 per cent.”

Mr Clare had made the same claim in parliament on August 1, while Senator Chisholm made the claim in the Senate on August 10.

“Almost 50 per cent of young people have a university degree today, but if you’re from the regions that number is 13 per cent,” he told the upper house. 

On the same day, Senator Chisholm also tweeted: “Only 13% of young people in our regions have a university degree”. 

Mr Perrett also made the claim in parliament on August 9.

When contacted by AAP FactCheck, Senator Chisholm’s office said the 13 per cent figure came from the minister’s office and was based on figures from the ABS’s 2022 Education and Work report. 

However, the figure didn’t match the ABS data, so AAP FactCheck contacted the minister’s office for further clarification. 

Mr Clare’s spokesman said the 13 per cent figure did not refer to the percentage of 25 to 34-year-olds in regional areas with a degree, but the percentage of all degree holders of that age who live in regional and remote areas.

“The 13 per cent figure refers to the percentage of 25 to 34-year-olds with bachelor and above degrees in regional and remote areas as a proportion of the population of all 25 to 34-year-olds with bachelor and above degrees, according to the ABS,” he told AAP FactCheck.

The minister’s office conceded that that figure had been calculated differently from the other percentages used for comparison by Mr Clare and his Labor colleagues.

That includes Mr Clare’s statement that “one in two” Australians in their late 20s and early 30s and “23 per cent” in outer suburbs have degrees in his August 3 speech and seven per cent in the Adelaide suburb of Elizabeth from August 1. 

All were calculated by taking the number of those with a degree within that age range and/or geographical area as a percentage of the total population in that age range and/or location.

Therefore the claim that only 13 per cent of young people in regions have a university degree is inaccurate.

Professor Andrew Norton, a higher education expert at the Australian National University, said educational attainment by area could be assessed using two ABS datasets.

Prof Norton said the Australian census was the most reliable, but data from the 2021 edition is not yet available so the most recent figures available are seven years old.

The ABS’s Education and Work Report, which comes from a survey of more than 20,000 households, is released annually so is more up-to-date.

However, Prof Norton said some of the regional figures in the dataset are based on small sample sizes so should be treated with caution.

Both sources indicated the proportion of degree attainment for 25 to 34-year-olds in regional areas is significantly higher than 13 per cent.

Prof Norton’s analysis of 2016 census data, supplied to AAP FactCheck, found more than 20 per cent of that demographic had a bachelor’s degree or above.

Degree attainment was lower for 25 to 34-year-olds living in 'very remote' areas at only 13.9 per cent. However, this category includes only a small minority of regional and remote Australians.

Forty-three per cent of that demographic in major cities in 2016 had a degree or higher, according to Prof Norton's figures. 

The ABS's 2022 Education and Work dataset (Table 34) also has data on degrees held by five-year age groups and by area.

Combining the data for the 25-29 and 30-34 year groups reveals about 216,000 of approximately 795,000 living in regional and remote areas had a degree or higher, or 27 per cent. 

This compares to 49 per cent of 25 to 34-year-olds living in major cities.

Prof Norton said degree attainment by regionality doesn't necessarily reflect participation rates or opportunities for regional students given some move to urban areas for study or work. 

"That said there is no doubt that the general assertion that higher education participation rates are lower in the regions is right," Prof Norton told AAP FactCheck. 

"Major city young people are nearly twice as likely to be at uni than outer regional young people."

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