WHAT WAS CLAIMED
The Cleveland Clinic says millions of COVID-19 vaccine recipients will die within five years.
OUR VERDICT
False. The claim misrepresents the organisation's information about viral myocarditis.
AAP FACTCHECK - A leading US medical organisation has not warned that millions of COVID-19 vaccine recipients will die within five years.
The claim misrepresents information published by the Cleveland Clinic about viral myocarditis, not the form of myocarditis that can be a rare side effect of the COVID vaccine.
The claim is made in a Facebook post that says "THIS IS ABSOLUTELY UNREAL!!!!!" and links to an article on the Slay News website, which AAP FactCheck has debunked numerous times.
The article is headlined: "Cleveland Clinic: Millions of Covid-Vaxxed Will Die Within '5 Years'".
It goes on to say: "According to Cleveland Clinic, mass mortality is expected to surge due to a ticking time bomb of myocarditis among the Covid-vaccinated", citing information from the clinic's myocarditis information page.
The page explains that myocarditis is inflammation of the heart muscle, which can weaken the heart. It can affect people quickly or slowly over time.
Among the causes of myocarditis, the most common is viral infection, such as flu or COVID.
Viral myocarditis is separate from myocarditis that can occur as a side effect of some medicines, including antidepressants, antibiotics and the COVID mRNA vaccine.
When contacted by AAP Factcheck, a Cleveland Clinic spokesperson said the claim was false and without scientific basis.
"Research has shown that contracting the COVID-19 virus is a greater risk factor for heart-related complications, including myocarditis, than the vaccine," the spokesperson said.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also says the myocarditis risk from COVID infection is higher than the small risk associated with the vaccine.
"Most patients with myocarditis after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination have experienced resolution of symptoms by hospital discharge," the CDC says.
The Slay News headline and article appear to be based on what the Cleveland Clinic says about the prognosis of people who get viral myocarditis.
The clinic says in some cases, myocarditis can lead to serious complications.
It goes on to say that myocarditis is also linked to nearly 20 per cent of sudden deaths in young people and that around 50 to 80 per cent of those with viral myocarditis survive five years or more after diagnosis.
The Slay News article appears to extrapolate this to mean that half of those who contracted myocarditis after vaccination "will be dead 'five years later.'"
Professor Peter McIntyre of Otago University told AAP FactCheck that vaccine-related myocarditis is much milder than its viral counterpart and has been found to have a much more favourable prognosis.
He said the claim was a "total misinterpretation" and that the 50 per cent to 80 per cent five-year survival rate referred to viral myocarditis.
Michael Baker, an epidemiologist also of Otago University, said viral myocarditis caused by infections such as the COVID virus was a far more severe condition than that caused by the vaccine.
"Severe cases and deaths have been reported but are rare, so the long-term survival is approaching 100 per cent."
The article's estimate of millions of COVID-vaccinated people dying within five years because of myocarditis also wildly misrepresents the incidence of myocarditis among vaccinated people.
A January 2022 study found that of the 192 million Americans who received more than 354 million COVID vaccines between December 2020 and August 2021, there were 1626 cases of myocarditis.
Additionally, the study found the major presenting symptoms appeared to resolve faster in cases of myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination than in typical viral cases of myocarditis.
A separate February 2022 study of suspected myocarditis cases in people younger than 21 following vaccination found that in 140 cases, most had a mild clinical experience and rapid resolution of symptoms.
That's backed up by a review article published in October 2022 that concluded: "In all age groups studied, the overall risks of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection‐related hospitalization and death are hugely greater than the risks from post‐vaccine myocarditis."
The article referenced studies showing there were 77 cases of myocarditis after vaccination (combining figures for first and second vaccines) per million people. This rate was six times lower than for myocarditis after COVID-19 infection.
Based on this incidence rate, to get up to even one million people who have developed myocarditis after vaccination, you would need to have vaccinated 12.99 billion people.
The world population is just over eight billion.
Even then, as explained above, the survival rate for vaccine-induced myocarditis is much higher than viral myocarditis.
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